Friday, November 03, 2006

Some random musings today....

As readers in the US will know, the issue of so-called immigration "reform" has been important here this year, although it seems to have diminished in importance somewhat in the run-up to the Congressional mid-term elections. I have been thinking about immigration lately in larger terms. Many wealthy countries are experiencing very low birthrates. Some, such as Italy, Spain and Japan have birthrates so low that their populations will shrink. This has obviously negative implications for economic growth and how well those countries will be able to support their pension obligations for the elderly. In the U.S., some recent studies show that the long-term potential rate of economic growth is falling, in part due to the fact that the baby boomers are just now beginning to retire and the workforce will shrink. Fewer workers means lower economic production which in turn means less wealth. I find it rather amazing that so many rich countries are so reluctant to allow immigration when it is more workers those countries need. The U.S. is actually more willing to accept immigrants than many countries and this is why the American economy has generally outperformed those in the rest of the developed world over the past 20 years or so. But Congress just approved the construction of a fence along part of the border with Mexico.

How does all this relate to developing countries? Well, in most developing countries both unemployment and birthrates are high. Those countries have people who need and want to work. The rich countries need more workers. Isn't there a match there? In wealthy countries, a higher proportion of immigrants tend to work than in the native populations. So, instead of building fences or creating more barriers to immigration, perhaps rich country governments should stop pandering to the vocal anti-immigration segments of their constituencies and adopt policies that recognize that their countries will be better off in the long run if they welcome the workers they will need.

Next, a bit about Senator Barack Obama. Reports have surfaced in the past two weeks that he is seriously considering a run for the US presidency in 2008. It is too soon to know whether he is worthy of support or not. However, one can say at this point that he is likely to be a friend of developing countries, or at least be more open and sympathetic to the problems of those countries. His recent visit to Africa provides support for this. Stay tuned....

I should correct something from my last post. Nicholas Kristof is not the author of a new book on aid to poor countries. The author is William Easterly and the book is "The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good."

Finally, an interesting statistic concerning the micro-finance movement. According to Grameen USA, more than 113 million people have been helped by micro-credit but only 82 million of those have been among the poorest of the poor. Great progress but still a long way to go.

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